90s formula -- ROI = I x M / C
invention times momentum divided by the cost
NOW -- ROI - P(I) x U / TCO
Proof of innovation times useability divided by total cost of ownership
Software industry at the start of this decade is a $200 billion industry, 70% in the US, representing 1% of the US GDP, and employing 325,000 people
Today, (2004), Open Source Software and Web Services changes the marketplace. Apache is 2x Microsoft. Microsoft is only 3x Linux. India and China are becoming enormous. And the enterprise is adopting OSS
Here is what enterprise CIOs are saying about Open Source:
Positives -- Lower TCO, Equivalent Functionality, Equivalent Quality, Bi-directional scalability, Faster bug response fixes
Some challenges -- Informal support, velocity of change, no roadmaps, functional gaps, licensing caveats, ISV endorsements
What does the software industry look like in 2010?
OSS destruction > Growth -- the industry will be the SAME SIZE at the end of the decade because Open Source will destroy as much revenue growth as occurs in other parts of the industry
US Share < 60% -- more and more is going to move off shore
<1% of US GDP -- GDP will grow faster than revenue in the software industry
< 325,000 people -- the US is not supplying the engineers for this industry
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