Showing posts with label TCG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TCG. Show all posts

Friday, June 04, 2010

Location, Location, Location

Yes the joke has been made before - what has long been said about the real estate industry is now also true of the mobile industry and even of the Internet more broadly as mobile access continues to grow and eventually becomes the primary way we access the Internet. The ability to detect a user's location is changing the way we design and use applications and is already creating enormous new business opportunities. What is truly amazing is that this is only the first of a series of sensors we'll carry with us in our phones -- the "low hanging fruit" of the mobile revolution that the 2010s will bring to our society.

Data courtesy of Open-FirstHere at Open-First we have been studying the emergence of the mobile paradigm and have been applying our knowledge in advising our corporate clients. The graph shown here is an important key to understanding the tremendous shift underway. It shows the first 5 quarters of user growth for the now enormously popular Twitter service, and the more recently launched Foursquare service. Both of these services can be seen as "lightweight social networks" in the sense that they provide one particular way in which people will interact, as opposed to Facebook and others that aggregate a variety of interaction modes.

But Foursquare reached 1 million users in half the time that Twitter did, even after a huge growth spurt for Twitter following the 2007 SXSW conference, largely acknowledged as the point at which the technology world "discovered" Twitter. Why has Foursquare grown so much more quickly?

In our opinion the disparate growth has everything to do with what Geoff Moore called in his famous book of the same name, "Crossing the Chasm." At the risk of losing all of the subtlety of Geoffrey's invaluable book (go buy it and read it if you haven't already) the simple explanation for how a product moves from "visionaries" to "pragmatists" is by providing some easily understood real value in the use of the product. Thus the difference in the growth rate of Twitter and Foursquare in our view was the time it took for each to establish that value.

Foursquare's advantage in this race was location. The shift is at once subtle but fundamental. Twitter is at heart a message bus, merely a facility that enables a wide range of activities. But Foursquare inherently incorporates purpose into its use. One could even say that location is a proxy for purpose -- I am in a particular place because I am doing a specific thing there. Others that come to that place are likely to be doing something similar for similar reasons. I immediately share purpose with others -- a social network of purpose will prove its value much more rapidly than a social network of interest like Twitter.

And even aside from mobile we currently have an explosion of social networks of purpose. The social buying site Groupon for example. But the other important aspect of Foursquare is the way in which it is leveraging a mobile sensor, in this case GPS for establishing location. This is important because we are about to see an explosion in the number and variety of sensors deployed in the built environment and on our bodies, generating vast new quantities of data, often into social pools (see Dr. Andreas Weigend's Social Data Revolution for more on this).

In each case, as a type of sensor is popularized, new applications (and new businesses) will emerge and because they will be tightly coupled with purpose, these applications will leap to "pragmatists" quickly and grow in importance and use quickly. What are these other sensors you ask? How about a device that accurately monitors how many calories you are burning? Or a personal pollutant sensor? Location will be extended to monitor social proximity and we'll also know more and more about an individual's activities while with others based on text, audio, and visual content collected and correlated based on content location tagging.

Our mobile phones have been turned into a global distributed sensor network. These devices will contain an increasing level of sophistication in what they are able to sense and transmit into networked database that will then overlay and correlate data from other sources. In a recent guest post for TechCrunch Robert Scoble imagines how this new world of location based services will change the way we live -- Location 2012.

And really, this is just the beginning.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Information Has NO Value

Information has no intrinsic value. It is what you DO with information that creates value. Perhaps this seems obvious or even useless to point out, but if you read through this post, perhaps you'll agree that it is an important key to understanding the future (and past) of all media businesses.

When you read news about why a company will do well or poorly you might invest more intelligently and make money. You listen to music. A joke makes you laugh. Each of these is a use - make money, listen, laugh... value begins when you are doing something with or because of information, not in the information itself.

Why is this distinction important? Information business models must be evaluated in terms of what the creator (or owner anyway) can gain through uses of information and what the recipients would gain. Not from something about the information itself. And there are some important places in which the benefits for creator and recipient are aligned and some where they are at odds.

A simple example -- malfeasance by a government official is a kind of information that as long as it is secret protects the job of that official. But it is in the public interest to have this information known widely so that whatever abuse is occurring can be stopped. Creators want it private, the rest of us want it to be public.

In media businesses we assume that the interests of creators and recipients are aligned -- but this is often not the case if we dig a little bit deeper.

Value Conflict 1: Restricted vs Broad Distribution
In the news business there are stories that are more valuable for the recipient if fewer people know about them so that acting on the info is limited (info about a company which will make a stock go up or down). And some stories that are more valuable if a large number of people know about them (the description of how a computer virus is passed between computers) so that acting on the info is widespread.

But a news company's business model might not be aligned with the value for recipients. It might be skewed toward broad access (the more subscribers the higher the revenue) even when restricting access would create more value for individual subscribers. Or toward restricting access (fees for reading online articles) even though all recipients would benefit more from broad knowledge of the content.

Value Conflict 2: Immediate vs. Long Term Returns
Time frame is another important component of recognizing value conflicts. Take music for example -- on the one hand a musician would like everyone to hear his songs as this helps build awareness and appreciation for that musician over time. Doing so may lead to more attendance at concerts, use of the song in advertising, and even future sales of related products. But in order to make money from selling copies of recordings (a shorter term benefit from the music) access to the music must be restricted. For recipients easy access is essential in a world in which far more music is available than can be heard.

Value Conflict 3: Constraints Imposed by Media Format
In some cases the delivery medium confuses the value proposition. For a newspaper owner, there is a clear efficiency in bundling information of a variety of mostly unrelated types into one rolled stack of pages in a plastic bag. But for the reader this is a very inefficient model for consuming information. Why wade through section after section when looking just for job listings or sport scores?

Similarly TV with its limited bandwidth and time slots needs an executive decision process to determine which programs go into which limited time slots but this isn't at all convenient for the consumption of content. As consumers we each want to start watching when we are ready and watch the program of our choice at the time of our choosing.

Internet Deconstruction
The wonderful and horrifying thing about the Internet is that it collapses the constructs which have created value conflicts and forces us to entirely reexamine our institutions and business models that create and distribute information. The key to developing new successful models will be to analyze the ways in that value for creators and recipients of information can be aligned.

For example news organizations reporting on politics have to focus on business models which earn money through the largest number of people consuming their content because a democracy functions most efficiently when all people are aware of the issues and positions and can debate and vote on them intelligently.

Musicians could focus on creating great experiences of listening to music, and communities of listeners. Value created for listeners would then result in more loyal fans who attend more concerts and buy more non-music products and increase the likelihood of other commercial uses of the music.

What is certain is that where business models exist today in which value to the recipient is frustrated by the attempt to extract value by the information creator (or owner), the business model will be defeated by a more aligned model.

So to create value in new media business models focus on what we DO with the information.

And remember that the information in itself has no value.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

The Strategic Use of Social Data

There is a tidal wave coming, or as my friend and colleague Andreas Weigend likes to say, a "Social Data Revolution." I like the metaphor of the tidal wave because it evokes the image of a force of nature that cannot be stopped whereas "revolution" might fail or be reversed by "counter-revolution." And I don't think the change coming can be stopped or reversed.

In the past few weeks since attending a fabulous workshop in Zurich hosted by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute I have been even more attuned to the emerging corporate practices in which social data is informing decision making processes. A few examples:


  • A retailer checking to see if your email address is active on a range of social networks as a way of deciding whether or not to clear your online order

  • A credit card company that has realized that customers who have extensive and long standing LinkedIn profiles are significantly less likely to default on their credit cards

  • An insurance company that is making decisions about which insurance claims to further investigate based on the social graph of the claimant

  • An enterprise IT equipment company that has modified its sales lead scoring algorithm to include a variety of factors from activity in social networks and social media

  • An appliance manufacturing company that has reduced the delay in knowing that they have a product defect issue by two months by monitoring online conversation rather than waiting for data from their field repair organization



The list goes on. Companies of all kinds, in every industry and region, are discovering that there is an enormous pool of information -- call it social data -- that is being created at an every increasing pace from which they can learn more, and make better decisions more quickly.

This trend will only accelerate with advanced mobile technologies. Every individual now has the capability of being a "sensor" in their physical environment, recording and transmitting physical data (location, speed, etc) but also behavioral and emotional data. When people walk into a particular store, say Starbucks, are they happier than before they walked in? How does that one store's data compare to other stores in the area?

AMBIENT INFORMATION MEETS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
For the past ten years we have been building out a network of sensors in roadways that can transmit data about the speed of passing vehicles and allow us to aggregate that data into a visualization (typically a map) to help us decide which roads we should choose to get from point A to point B. This is an example of data-driven decision making with which we have all become familiar.

Now every person is a "sensor" and is using their computer or mobile phone to transmit information into public (and private) databases. Businesses must learn how to build the analytical models and visualization tools to give their employees the equivalent of a map in order to comprehend this information and use it to make better decisions.

The companies that utilize these tools effectively in their industries will have an enormous strategic advantage over their competitors. The time to join the tidal wave or revolution is now.

Saturday, March 06, 2010

The next Facebook

Randall Stross offers some useful insights on Facebook and on the phenomena of the "network effect" in his latest NY Times article, "Getting older without getting old." But he misses the easy one when he writes
Industry watchers constantly scan the horizon for a challenger that could displace Facebook...


The most interesting thing which we should all reflect on in our businesses is the rapid emergence of Facebook from nothing to 50 million users in 2007 to over 400 million in early 2010... and how a bunch of kids have rapidly transformed the business landscape with an idea backed by a little bit of software and the Internet. And how this is happening over and over again in every industry.

The "next facebook" is the wrong question to ask. We should be asking, what is the idea that is going to blow up all of our own preconceived notions of the way our market/industry works and how can the "network effect" be used to create the next amazing transformation? What should you be doing right this minute to change the way your company is connecting with customers, creating value in the marketplace, and changing the way business gets done?

The "next facebook" will almost certainly not be anything like facebook - it will be a new insight into the way in which the Internet removes barriers to our collaborating and co-creating meaning in our world.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Geoffrey Moore on Innovation: Video

At the end of last month, on October 27th and 28th in London, TCG helped the Symbian Foundation host a conference on the future of mobile. Almost 3,000 people attended this dynamic event, held at the Earl's Court exhibition center. On the second day of the event Geoffrey Moore spoke to the audience about what Symbian should be doing and how Nokia and the other members should be participating in and benefiting from the Symbian Foundation. The slides and a video of his presentation are now available. Geoff makes an excellent set of observations useful for every company about the role of innovation in your business and what you need to be doing to compete:



Geoffrey Moore at Symbian Exchange and Exposition from Ted Shelton on Vimeo.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

The Geek Shall Inherit the Earth

I was speaking with someone last night who was attending the Enterprise 2.0 conference in San Francisco who was complaining about how Microsoft has managed to achieve remarkable success with their SharePoint product despite being inferior to start ups like Jive. He then asked if I was attending E2 to which I blithely replied "no, I don't really care about the technology wars." Which is true but incomplete. The more complete answer would have been, "technology is merely the medium we move through in order to get the really interesting things done."

And technology is increasingly a ubiquitous and all encompassing medium.

If businesses were people, technology would be the air they breath. Communications, data collection, decision making systems, etc -- everything a company does is mediated by some kind of technology and this is only accelerating. As more and more information is collected the need for systems which help us use this information become ever more essential.

The most effective companies will be the ones that have the most effective information systems. So I am really not worried about Microsoft wasting people's money with SharePoint -- the companies that use that technology will suffer the consequences. And the businesses that understand the geek-centric reality of 21st century business will succeed. Over time companies like Google, Amazon, and Akamai will teach us to use really good technology to build our businesses. Even Microsoft is beginning to understand -- how do you think Bing works? On Linux servers run by Akamai of course.

So I won't bother with "enterprise 2.0" which has become a writhing pit of technology vendors trying to insult our intelligence with ridiculous claims about their products, and instead I will continue to focus on real business problems and their solutions, safe in knowing that ultimately the best technology will win out because it will create the most value for the smartest companies -- that is, the geek shall inherit the earth.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Will Your Tribe Change The World

Watch this TED talk video of David Logan on tribal leadership and then look around your own organization. What stage are you and your co-workers operating at? Stage 2 where you hate the world? Or "stabilizing at Stage four", like Zappos? Or are you at Stage 5 and changing the world? And what can you do to move your organization up this ladder?

Tribes are a critical organizational model that we naturally adopt, whether explicitly or implicitly, in our interactions with others. Understanding tribal behavior and working more directly on improving our tribes is key to developing high performance organizations. And if David Logan is right, it might also be the key to changing the world.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Ambient Awareness meets Business Intelligence

Clive Thompson in a 2008 NY Times Magazine article reported on how "ambient awareness" is enriching our social lives as we have instant access to more and more real time information about our friends and colleagues I'm so Digitally Close to You). The rapid increase in the number of information sources, the speed new information is being generated, and the quantity of information available is equally impacting business processes from product development to marketing to customer service. In my consulting work this is one of the key technology shifts that I see companies struggling with as they re-examine how data is gathered to support decision making. Redesigning business processes to incorporate business intelligence from ambient sources will be a key part of redesigning companies over the next decade.

(This blog post is an excerpt from a long white paper that I am currently writing which I will post in its entirety when complete)

The term ambient intelligence (or AmI) was, according to Wikipedia, first used by Brian Epstein of Palo Alto Ventures in 1998 in a workshop for Philips on the future of consumer electronics. The world they and others began to describe had a set of key technology trends that together created a fundamental shift in the way we interact with the physical world including miniaturization, wireless communications, software platforms for distributed systems, improved human-computer interfaces, the general robustness of autonomous systems and a continuing reduction in cost for the deployment and maintenance of such systems

These researchers envisioned a world that by 2020 thoroughly connected people with their environments as sensors, transmitters and other devices became increasingly inexpensive to deploy, easier to program, and more connected. Ambient information systems can be generalized as following this common pattern: (1) the translation of the inherent information in our environment, such as the speed of passing traffic, into digital information via a sensor; (2) the transmission of this data through a computer network; (3) use and presentation of this data by a human or machine process (for example, traffic statistics super-imposed over an online map). I'll use the term "lens" to denote any system which is aggregating, analyzing, and presenting this data.

A simple example of this can be seen in the automated toll systems now in use in many western countries. A small transmitter placed in an automobile uniquely identifies the vehicle to a toll sensor, allowing the driver to be automatically charged a use fee as he drives past some fixed point on the roadway. In this case the lens is a machine process designed to associate the location of a specific vehicle with a financial transaction to be processed against a specific driver's account.

Augmented reality systems currently in their first consumer deployments through mobile phones also offer a glimpse at the human side of this coming world of ubiquitous information-rich interactions. The combination of a set of sensors including a digital camera, GPS, and a compass into a portable device with Internet connectivity allows information about an individual's environment to be retrieved as he moves from one place to another. Here the lens is a visual human-computer interface made possible through the video display of the digital device.

In just the same way that the physical world can be instrumented, detected, and thus better understood we can also instrument the virtual environments in which we are now increasingly communicating and conducting business. As Thompson points out, the innovation of Facebook's "news feed" in 2006 was not in the creation of new information but in the way that information was surfaced to Facebook users.

Facebook had already created a system in which inherent information about people's activities ("Tim and Lisa broke up") was being captured through the human sensor network of its users. The news feed suddenly provided a lens through which one could consume all of this information easily, providing users with a tool for comprehending larger quantities of data and presumable making decisions (I guess I should call Tim or Lisa...) and, as Thompson reports, startling and upsetting people who hadn't thought through the implications of putting this information online.

In the same way the inherent information in our business environments is increasingly being collected and stored online. Past Amazon CTO Andreas Weigend enjoys pointing out to clients that "more information will be created and stored this year than in every prior year in human history." Businesses must implement the right sensors for collecting and transmitting and the right lenses for aggregating, analyzing, and presenting this information.

For example, for a B2B client we recently added online social profiles to the set of information that sales people have about prospects as they try to follow up on initial product inquiries. Having more information available about that particular individual measurably increases the likelihood that the sales person can reach a prospect and have a meaningful conversation. But almost as important is how this information is informing the process of deciding who to contact in the first place.

Sophisticated sales organizations have long implemented "scoring" mechanisms for trying to decide who their most interesting potential prospects are within a given list. A weakness in these systems is that much of the information used for such scores is self-reported by the prospects (size of company, title, industry group, etc). Thus the ambient intelligence about these prospects -- the data they are creating all of the time as the use various online services -- can be significantly more useful in assessing the relative value of one prospect versus another.

Another example, marketing organizations are increasingly aware of the vast number of customers talking about their companies and products. Communications teams are establishing "listening posts" (sensor networks) to aggregate this information. Too often this information stops at an evaluation of "influencers" who can then be targeted for media campaigns. We have helped organizations recognize that key product insights, support issues, and other business processes can be informed by the collection of this ambient intelligence from the marketplace.

These are a set of ideas which we are only just beginning to understand about how business will change over the coming decade. When researchers began to define ambient intelligence a decade ago, they envisioned "...a world in 2020 where user-friendly devices support ubiquitous information, communication and entertainment." We can now see that the same technology trends impacting consumer products will also radically transform business processes and decision making. The most advanced companies have already begun using sensors to collect relevant information from their environments and are developing lenses to use this information in their activities. The development of these systems will be critical to competitiveness in the 21st century.

Monday, September 28, 2009

The Social Web's impact on Management Theory

An increasing number of people are talking about how social technologies -- social media, social networks, collaboration, reviews, crowd sourcing, etc -- are impacting our understanding of how organizations should be structured and how employees should be recruited, managed, and rewarded. On Wednesday of last week I presented an initial paper in London on this subject, based on my work with companies over the past decade or so: Open Management (opens PDF on Scribd website).

The last 10 years? Yes, in May of 2000 I joined Borland as its Chief Strategy Officer and had the pleasure of working with Doc Searls (one of the four authors of the Cluetrain Manifesto) who was working as a consultant to the company. Borland had decided to develop an open source development tools product, (Kylix for those of you who might wonder) and Doc had been retained to help the company understand the Linux "community" whatever that was!

As a technology firm working with software developers Borland already had a long history of using online forums to connect with customers. But I think it is fair to say that the experience of bringing a Linux product to market significantly increased our awareness of a new dynamic between companies and their markets. This has led me on a decade long exploration of social media, social networks, and a variety of other tools which I broadly group together under the name "social technologies." Social, not because it they are about fun but because they are about people doing things with other people. In other words, social as in sociology.

And organizations, especially corporations, are one of the most interesting places to study human social behavior. For generations now we have relied upon hierarchical structures to facilitate the coordination required for large numbers of people to act together. Now technology is offering an alternative to hierarchy, one which is proving to offer significant competitive advantages to early adopters, open source being one clear example.

In taking "open" as my label for this movement I seek to focus on the difference emerging from our twentieth century business constructs. All business is "social" -- but the 21st century will see an increasing number of open business models -- open management, open communications, open source, open support, open product development, open research... It is a great time to rethink assumptions and consider alternatives to everything we know in business!

Monday, July 20, 2009

Five Ideas That Matter

While TCG partner Haydn Shaughnessy has kindly attributed co-author status to me, I can hardly say that I did more than a few edits and act as a sounding board for this terrific essay - "Five Ideas That Matter" (link opens the document on Scribd) in which he introduces the idea of metatrends. Here I have reproduced the introduction in the hopes that this may intrigue you and you'll follow the link to read the whole paper:

"As the first decade of the 21st century comes to a close it’s clear that there are profound changes underway in the systems that govern and condition our lives.

The World Wide Web offers an opportunity to uncover where people's ideas and sentiments are headed and what they think about those changes. Never before have we had instant access to 8 billion pages worth of thoughts, ideas, or belief. The trouble is, as designer Matt Webb recently remarked, we have already passed the point where our attention can keep track of what is knowable and memorable. We need more shorthand.

This document is a deliberately brief guide to ideas on the web. In it we put forward a new research methodology and conceptual framework for dealing with the web’s data stream – the METATREND. Metatrends are, we hope, a shorthand for understanding change - as perceived by many millions of people.

A Metatrend is a trend that is parsed through the prism of web opinion and attitude. In place of a guru’s vision of we propose subjecting expert analysis and trend watching to social dialogue.

What we present is a first approach to seeing trends through the eyes of people who routinely blog, comment, tweet and search the web.

Why bother? Apart from the desirability of understanding large-scale opinion, in a parallel project The Conversation Group is witnessing increased interest in ideas such as creative destruction and system renewal, indications that people are seeking a new description for their experience and aspirations.

That search should be central to the business planning of any company or Government because it represents a changing mindset, and a new approach to production and marketing, of products, services and ideas.

Here we've had our first go at defining one element of that change. It's an ongoing project. Eventually we hope the project will help leaders, corporate and political, to create the messages, product and policies that respond to what people are seeking."

Continue reading "Five Ideas That Matter"

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Google Android in iPhone territory

TCG researchers took a close look at the launch of the first Android phone last year as a sample case of using social media as a market research tool. The results are now up as a white paper: "Surviving
 in 
iPhone 
Territory" (warning PDF direct download link).

Our team examined 93,228 relevant & unique posts referencing the first Android phone, the G1, on English language blogs. This sounds like a lot but it was vastly overshadowed by ongoing conversation about Apple's iPhone.

There are some important lessons here for what companies need to do when they participate in social media, especially when a competitor's brand is already dominant in the conversation. Despite the size of Google and their relative sophistication, this is not a story of social media success.

This is also a great example of the kind of work The Conversation Group does for its clients. When we do a report like this for a paying client, we can't share it publicly. This report was done specifically so that we could share an example of our work. Let me know what you think!

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Distrusting Emergent Behavior

Yesterday my TCG partner Peter Hirshberg and I were talking about why it is that people are trustful of hierarchical organizational dynamics and distrustful of emergent organizational behavior. In the past week we had both independently encountered resistance at a client with a proposed course of action which would unleash a potential group dynamic.

I related to Peter the story in Gary Hamel's Future of Management about how the father of "modern" management techniques Frederick Winslow Taylor
in 1912... appeared in front of a congressional committee and argued that scientific management required nothing less than a mental revolution...
Hamel goes on to illustrate how different the world of the latter half of the twentieth century is from the world that Taylor was encountering as he introduced his revolutionary ideas:
Consider: in 1890 the average company in the United States had four employees, and few had more than a couple of hundred workers. Had you been alive at the time, it would have been hard to imagine that a company could ever grow to the scale of U.S. Steel...
Hamel invokes the language of Thomas Kuhn who, in his groundbreaking work on scientific method, developed the concept of "paradigm shifts" in science. Hamel sees similar mechanisms at work in management theory and practice, describing current management practitioners as "partisans of the old paradigm... members of the bureaucratic class."

While I believe this to be true, and believe that it is in part our familiarity with "the old paradigm" that makes it hard for us to accept the new, I had another thought as well this morning while listening to an insightful TED talk by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita called "Three predictions on the future of Iran, and the math to back it up." I have linked the video below and it is definitely worth watching. But the applicable insight is in the first few minutes when he talks about the complexity of human interactions.

The observation is a simple one but with some really interesting implications. Take a problem in which there are 5 decision makers. There are 120 possible interactions between those 5 people (five factorial). Any reasonably smart person can hold 120 connections in their head and can thus feel some comfort in understanding how the dynamics of five people will result in decision making.

But if you simply double the number of people to 10, you increase the number of connections to 3,628,800 (ten factorial). And 100 people? We are talking about really large numbers... There is no way for the human brain to compute the complexity of decision making within these groups, although, Bueno de Mesquita points out, this is a very good task for computers.

The implications for management methodology (and human sociology more generally) are quite interesting -- we develop hierarchical organizations in order to simplify decision making in groups, creating a sufficient efficiency for a given task or activity by limiting the number of inputs into the system or limiting the roles for inputs in order to reduce complexity.

And we grow up in our societies intensely internalizing this sense about the limits of complexity because everything we want to do requires either this notion of small groups or hierarchy which compartmentalizes the type or ability for individuals to contribute to those decisions.

But computers introduced into these systems fundamentally change what is possible in a way which is alien to our internalized understanding of how these systems work. Suddenly with the mediation of computers, significantly larger groups of peers can co-produce information, decisions, insights, etc than we have ever experienced in our non-computer-mediated past.

Understanding how the computer changes who we are as human beings and how its use changes what our societies are capable of will be an essential part of overcoming this reactionary distrust of the emergent properties of these systems.



Monday, April 13, 2009

London Interview

The following is an edited transcription of an interview I gave to Hugh Mason in London back in January of this year. As we were talking in a bar over a few pints of beer, the transcript wasn't entirely clear -- from the background noise, not the beer! But the conversation ranges over a number of topics I have written about elsewhere about what brands need to be doing to adapt to the social marketing imperatives of our new mass connected media environment.

I have kept the back and forth format of the interview and in most cases simply deleted confusing sections rather than trying to correct them -- in a couple of cases this may seem like I am not answering Hugh's questions... and maybe I didn't :-)

Hugh Mason: OK, so it's the 4th of January. I am with Ted Shelton who is Chief Executive of The Conversation Group. Ted, people are interested in the concept of conversation. There are plenty of websites, there are plenty of blogs, there are plenty of podcasts out there talking about what conversational marketing is. Can you give us your kind of 30 second elevator pitch?

Ted Shelton: Conversation is a dynamic between members of a marketplace about the things that are important to that marketplace - so it could be two customers or it could be a customer and a member of the company, it could be a customer and an analyst, a customer and an investor, investor and... Any two participants in a marketplace can be having a conversation about something that's relevant to that market.

Hugh: So that sounds pretty conventional, so this concept of conversational marketing – why is that a new concept?

Ted: Well, actually, sorry, so I actually hate the phrase conversational marketing. The phrase conversational marketing was invented by Peter Hirshberg when we were trying to sell advertising on the Technorati website and - so the idea was, gee, we need to sell ads on this thing that aggregates conversation in a way that it's relevant to brand. The brand sponsors that aggregation and so we'll aggregate the conversation and call that conversational marketing because it creates a value for the community while drawing attention to the brand. It's not entirely a bankrupt concept but in the end, it's very stupid. In the end, it's not what brands need to do in order to be successful in engaging with their markets.

Hugh: That makes complete sense. If we can re-wind this several levels, something that I have heard you say goes back to the history of the way human beings talk to each other. That what some of the social media technologies we've suddenly become expert in the last few years is actually re-invention of something very ancient about the way the people talked to each other. Can you tell us about that?

Ted: I don't think it's a re-invention. It is a re-insertion of a persistent human pattern of behavior into the mainstream of a intention in transactions. So, if you look at transactions before the industrial world, the way in which people came to decision about a transaction they might enter into of virtually any kind was through a consultation with people who that person felt were peers or trusted. It could be that they were experts, it could be that they've had authority but those people were known to the person entering into the transaction.

It was really an interesting aberration of the 20th century that we enter into transactions based upon an intuitive sense of what our peers might want us to believe about a given product -- a sense being created by advertising. I think the way this probably can be understood best is to look back at the beginnings of advertising, for example here in England, the place where the industrial era took off. This was one of the first places where goods could be mass manufactured and sold in a region much larger than the producers had a personal reputation. The way in which a producer would reassure a customer about a product would be through say the endorsement of royalty, "this is the queen's butter." So the queen says this is good butter and even if I live miles and miles away from London, I can trust that it's good butter because the queen says it's good butter. So advertising sort of kicks off from there. You say, gee, what if I take a class of people and employ that class of people to help spread the idea that you will be sexy if you drink Budweiser or at least that you get to hang out with sexy girls. So that can create aspiration, a sense of association with a peer group that I want to participate in, and then maybe I'll buy the product.

The thing about the Internet is that, by entirely disrupting the one-way communication model of mass media, you fracture the ability of a message broadcaster to control the definition of the aspiration and so suddenly, you have all these kids talking to each other and saying "this is really stupid that the beer company says that if you drink beer you can be with sexy girls because sexy girls think that beer is stupid." The beer company is trying to manipulate you and when this becomes apparent through peer discussion the advertising becomes ridiculous.

Hugh: So the Internet is allowing us to be more authentic, more real?

Ted: It's not that we are more authentic or more real. I would argue that the internet just allows us to express our authenticity in a public form. I think a really good example of this is the way in which customer service has gone from being a private act to a public act. So when you had a problem with your cell phone provider and you called up the cell phone company, you had a private interaction with the customer service department of a cell phone company on the phone. So you might have been very authentic and very real but it was a private act of authenticity instead of a public act. Today when you have a bad experience with a company, you write about it on your blog or you twitter or in many many other ways it becomes a public knowledge.

So if you think about the way in which knowledge is shared between individuals, if lots of people have the same experience but don't have any connection to each other, you have shared separate knowledge of the experience and it doesn't ever actually provoke any of those individuals to take further action but if then you make those private acts public and so, you have shared knowledge which is then mutual knowledge so that each participant in a transaction knows that every other participant is experiencing the same problem, then you actually engage people to take things to the next step to say, well, let's organize against this cell phone company.

There are already examples where individuals might say, you know what, I'm really mad at the government but if I know this only in isolation, then I might not do anything. But when it becomes mutual knowledge that I and all of my neighbors are all mad at the government, then we might as a group of people organize to do something. That's the incredible power of the Internet that it actually takes things which could be shared knowledge but is shared private knowledge and makes them mutual knowledge.

Hugh: You've given some examples of negative experience with customer services. Are there positive experiences too, other examples that you've come across where a community working together having a conversation that might have been private but is now public and shared, has created something new, has been a positive thing? Is this always a kind of combative dynamic?

Ted: Sure like Linux. I think it's easy to come up with the examples that are well recognized examples of collaborative or collective intelligence. When you look at Wikipedia for example. Yeah, Wikipedia. So certainly the broadest known example you can - even probably more than Linux. Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia tells a great story (TED talk - Jimmy Wales on the Birth of Wikipedia) about how at one point in the evolution of Wikipedia, a group of skin heads had decided that they were going to deface pages related to African-American History. But it's very hard to keep secrets online and so people within the Wikipedia community become aware that these bad actors were trying to organize and, according to their own accounts, 20,000 skinheads were going to all descend upon Wikipedia at the same moment to try to deface the site. Of course, as Jimmy Wales says, one of the things that is always true about fringe groups is that they always think that they have 20,000 people but really actually are a couple of hundred people. But what was fascinating was that the community having been alerted to this dynamic, when the attack actually came, there was a large number of people undoing the vandalism. So these people had done enormous amount of work, hours and hours of creating false entries to defame people like Martin Luther King. They came and they had uploaded these changes and within seconds, these changes were reverted and so what took this sort of attempted organized opposition to the mainstream collectively 100s of hours to create could be undone in seconds by the broader community working together. And so that's actually I think an example of how Wikipedia rises above the possibility of vandals or bad actors. There are certainly examples where things have been created or changed that persist for days or weeks or months but ultimately, Wikipedia and mostly well functioning social communities are self moderating and so not only do they get created through the good will but they are also protected.

Hugh: Can you give us a sense in terms of if I were a brand, how does all this dynamic work? I'm thinking of some kind of established consumer brand, how does this stuff affect me. Is it purely in terms of the way I do my marketing or is there broader impact?

Ted: Well, there is a thought provoking metaphor that Jeremy Bullmore wrote about a few years ago. He wrote an article about how brands are not about the head but about the heart, and hence what people feel about the brand won't change overnight. People's definition of brand builds over time -- he likened it to a bird building a nest - a bird will take a twig here and a piece of string from there and slowly build it up and the nest becomes a very stable object which is hard to change. In the 20th century, brands and marketers could assume that most of those twigs and pieces of string were somehow under the influence of the brand -- they could buy advertising, they can control experience in a store with a product, they can influence perception through communications and so most of the touch points for the consumer building that brand nest would be influenced, if not controlled, by the brand. What's happening today as we all become media -- as the experiences that each of us have with brands are instantaneously being transmitted to our networks -- is that those twigs and those strings are coming from many-many-many more places today and they're coming from our peers. So they are coming from very powerful sources of authority, people that we respect in and can connect with. And so we are building our nest out of materials that the brand has very little control or even influence over and so it really dramatically changes the world for the marketer. The marketer now has to say, gee, it's not about how I use media as a lens through which consumers will perceive my brand but rather how do I actually enable my organization, how do I become a facilitator for my organization to have a genuine and authentic interaction with that audience that creates more compelling engagement, a more compelling sort of, if you will, sticks and straws and strings. That's the world of marketing, entirely dramatically shifting.

Hugh: I'm really interested to explore that on two levels – one in terms of what the impact for an organization that has say brand or a message and I'm also interested to understand how this kind of change in terms of communication is affecting different sectors, different demographics, even different parts of the world. You live in California a very networked place. Here in the UK, there are parts of this country still fairly well at the end of piece of string in terms of broadband, so on. Can you give us a sense of - first of all in terms of the impact or the different sectors that have seen more activity driven in a new direction because of this phenomenon, are there different demographics, are there different phases through which this is going to impact the way that brands have to change and work?

Ted: So I think – in answering your question, the first thing that I would raise is a question back to you and to people that are considering this question -- would you consider Californians an outlier and their behaviors irrelevant to the rest of the world? Or instead, are they early indicators of a behavior that is sweeping through society. I think that what we're seeing happen in the most network active places is a ground zero and that what we're seeing happen in that market is in fact going to sweep through the markets in every industry, in every demographic, in every geography throughout the world as these trends become more widespread -- because I thing the trends are driven by human nature, because they are driven by this core sociology that's wiping out this aberration of the last 50 years of controlled media. So our evolutionary traits are going to win out over that sort of temporary technological state that existed in what we called mass media.

So, as we then look at what these trends are, we say, the trends will be toward more individual participation, more expression of likes, dislikes and more collaboration within communities around both intent to purchase and actual activity - search, aggregate buying or aggregate usage. I think what we'll see is that brands that are going to remain relevant are going to have to be participatory in ways that those communities form their opinions. In order to do so, they actually have to create quality and provide value and be transparent. It will no longer work to have a crappy product. You'll be found out. Crappy products will rapidly – the news of a crappy product rapidly spreads within a community and customers will trend toward quality.

Communities often will have better information than the companies themselves and be more informed about their options and all about the pros and cons of different products. One of the things that I think is really core to our practice is going to companies and saying to them, the most important asset that you have in your company is your own employees because if your employee is doubtful about what you are doing, you need to re-examine what you are doing. If your own employees don't believe in it, then your customers are certainly not going to and when you customers become the most important proactive voice in the marketplace, for or against your value proposition, then you fundamentally have to listen to the advice of the customer in a way that today we give a lip service to but have not ever fully committed to. So your employees become the test bed, if your employees believe in what you're doing, they can then not only validate but become the megaphone to the marketplace. They can be that string for convincing - explaining to a marketplace why the proposition that you offer makes sense, is relevant to particular communities. The role of the marketer then is to really support the customers becoming champions of the value proposition that the company offers.

Hugh: So there is a change due for organizations as well. Can you talk us through what the implications are, it's not a simple question of simply buying in a technology to do a blog, buying in the technology to have a bunch of people talking to customers online on behalf of your brand, but something much more profound here. Can you just talk us through the kind of cultural changes that you've seen organizations having to make?

Ted: Blogs are really interesting for communication, they are very valuable but yes, they are just one part of a much larger communications space that companies need to address. So if you think about the kind of communications human beings have evolved in the real world, we have different communications for different kinds of information. We have a verbal conversation, people chatting over coffee with very short period of value and requiring presence versus a book which can, in the case of Bible, be available and valuable for thousands of years. And everything in between, so you have a variety of forms of persistence. You have a variety of forms of immediacy of the interaction so in some cases, it's really important that people be present together in order for the interaction to occur, in other cases, that doesn't matter at all. And then you have changes in scope of the interaction, so you have conversations you want to have privately, conversations you want to have with a particular group, a larger group, the whole world

So what you need to do is think about the kinds of communications that a brand needs to engage in, according to all this different communications channels. Some channels are about persistent data that needs to exist in the marketplace and somebody from the company doesn't need to be present. Some do require an employee be present. In some cases there is a need to broadcast to the whole world and in some cases the message is just to customers, or just to a specific customer. So the different online technologies that companies use define sufficient space within that communications queue to be able to address set of problems that that particular brand has in explaining and supporting its products at marketplace.

Hugh: So we've got a whole range of thing and what is required. One thing I'm interested to explore is the ways -- OK, you hire a bunch of agencies to do this for you. But that still isn't the end of the story. It doesn't result in changing the culture within organizations, once you start having a conversation that's much more honest. Can you talk a little bit about that?

Ted: Well, so you started out by saying, OK, let's go hire a bunch of agencies who do the communications. I think that the most successful companies are going to be ones where the employees of the company recognize then important part of succeeding in doing their job function within the company is engaging directly with the market, so whether you're developing a product or you are marketing product or selling a product, supporting a product or recruiting employees or all that kinds of things that a company does -- that a part of your job is going to be about having a conversation and having a direct interaction. Agencies can be helpful in educating and supporting organizations but ultimately, organizations have to make this a part of their core mission. So I think it is a lot about the traditional marketer or communicator in an organization becoming the facilitator of the organization.

Nicholas Carr in his book The Big Switch, talks about the electrical grid as an analogy for information technology and he talks about the history of the evolution of electricity in American manufacturing environments as a model for thinking about how IT will actually evolve from corporate center IT departments to services that IT organizations will tap in to the way we might connect with electric grids. And so, one of the things he talks about is the activity gap when electricity was first being installed in manufacturing facilities that were multi-story buildings. They were built that way because that was an efficient way to centralize the distribution of power when power was distributed by belts and pulleys. When electricity came into those factories, they simply tore out the belt and pulleys and replaced it with electrical wires. This really did very little to change productivity within the factories because the source of productivity in the factory was not the type of power. It was the way in which the production was organized and the production was organized in a way that satisfied requirement of power distribution via belts and pulleys but once you were freed from that limitation of belts and pulleys and you could actually design a factory to be on a single level where your products could move in a linear fashion on a single level through that factory. So suddenly something was possible once you have electricity as a way of distributing power and when that was implemented you had an enormous increase in productivity.

I think the Nicholas Carr actually misses the really important story that he actually otherwise is drawing a good parallel to, which is that the means of and systems of production need to be transformed within companies in order to achieve a real productivity increase from this change in information technology. Once you say, IT is about this very distributed connectivity and computational capability, what you're also saying is – I don't have to limit production to being inside my company. I can actually take the production to the market. How can I distribute production – how can I take production and say, hey, you know what? There's a group of people who are actually really smart about this particular aspect of the problem, and they can solve that problem and contribute.

IT technology, like electricity, changes production, in this case, changing it from linear single level (inside a company) to social -- distributed social production that's extremely powerful.

Hugh: So finishing off this conversation and as a proposition, The Conversation Group is not just about implementing a bunch of strategies or advising people on what particular communication channels to implement or whatever, there's a more profound mission, there's a more profound service. That TCG is offering.

Ted: For the chief executive who is considering how his or her business is going to not only remain competitive but rise above the other companies in the fields, the challenge is to not think about what is the incremental improvement. David Cushman has a great example in high jumping. High jumping was a sport in which people ran toward the pole and leaped as far as they could straight up into the air and then kick, put one leg up and then the other over the pole. And then someone came along and backed up to the pole, actually ran up to the pole and turned his back to it and flopped over and was able to achieve a height much beyond any of the people doing. So I think similarly, companies today simply look at incremental improvements in productivity, "how do I get a little bit more a lift."

But they could look at these technologies and say, how do I really transform and create improvements in a non-linear fashion that can allow my company to rise above my competitors. And in every industry, there will be a company that chooses to follow that path and chooses to see these technologies as a way to unleash employee productivity improving morale, improving ingenuity that's coming from those employees and then in turn increasing employee engagement externally with a marketplace... So every CEO in the world needs to be thinking about how can they inspire their organization to seize the opportunity that social technology offers and that's I think the thing that TCG more than anything also is able to help an organization do. We're there to support change agents and providing the understanding, the insights, the best practices, case studies of other organizations and also the really hands-on strategic in which a particular organization can adapt themselves to these new market opportunities.

Hugh: One final question. If I'm a well established marketing agency, why would I consider working with TCG? What would be the attraction for becoming part of this movement and how could I do that?

Ted: As an established marketing organization, you suffer from success. The flaw of any organization, of any person is embedded in their strength. Marketing companies today have had great success with the techniques that made sense in the context of the last 50 years. And they are married to those - that methodology, that process that had been successful. It's very hard for them to un-think, to change the way that they do business. So the most important reason for you as a marketing organization to try, to become a part of the movement with TCG is to really see some daylight, to see what is at the other end of this tunnel.

And the opportunity is to see that the future of marketing is about being the inspirational enablers and leaders of a whole new generation of business people who are going to be deeply engaged with their markets and you can learn how to be that sort of enabler when you work with us.

Hugh: That sounds very inspiring. Ted, thanks for talking to me.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Word of mouth Micro-Case Study

Attention marketers -- the best way to understand how the new "connection" based marketing trumps the old "interrupt" models (as I have written about here in my anti-social marketing post) is to immerse yourself in these new environments and become a part of the new information flow. But here is a shortcut - documentation of a real example.

Step One - introduction to a new product
I follow a number of interesting people whose opinions I respect on Twitter. One of these people is Technorati board member and all around interesting guy Joi Ito (@joi on Twitter). Yesterday, while riding home on BART I was glancing through the latest Twitter updates when I saw an enigmatic post from Joi:
You'll either get this or you won't http://tinyurl.com/c3gpop
So I of course clicked on the link. Joi had linked to a band page for I Fight Dragons on the new music discovery site The Sixty One.

Step Two: Becoming Engaged
The site is full of accolades for this fascinating band from Chicago. Having lived in Chicago for 10 years (and having discovered some great bands while living there) I was immediately intrigued and the more I read about them the more interested in their music I became. While Joi was the trigger for discovery, the fan generated comments and descriptions of the band and their music was what got me really interested in learning more. In addition to comments and links to YouTube videos, The Sixty One streams samples of the band's music while you are reading about them.

Step Three: Transaction
Making the step to being interested to buying music from the band was of course just one click away via Apple iTunes -- and my total financial exposure was $0.99 for a single song -- a low cost to try out the band's music as a part of my running mix.

So in the space of one ride on BART I was exposed to a new band and bought their music, all as the result of an introduction through my social network. Read Seth Godin's post "First, ten" for more on how a small number of fans is all you need to make your great product succeed. And if you don't have a great product? Go back to the drawing board until you do have one. And stop interrupting me, I am busy listening to I Fight Dragons.