Wednesday, October 30, 2002

Thinking in exponentials

Ed Felten did the hard math and came up with a figure of a 7% annual growth rate as the answer to the math problem posed by Ray Kurzweil, namely:

The rate of change ... is accelerating exponentially. We are "doubling the paradigm shift rate" on a constant basis. This century will be the equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today's rate...>

OK - have to think about this some more. Maybe Kurzweil can weigh in and offer some explanation of his numbers?? You out there Ray?

No comments: